Macroeconomic and Energy Drivers of Sustainable Logistics: Evidence from the Baltic Sea Region

This study examines the impact of macroeconomic and energy factors on the sustainable development of the logistics sector in eight Baltic Sea Region (BSR) countries from 2008 to 2023. A synthetic logistics sustainability index (SD), ranging from 0.54 (Lithuania, 2009) to 0.93 (Germany, 2023), was constructed to capture economic, social, and environmental dimensions. The analysis employed country-level regressions, fixed-effects panel models, and a one-step dynamic GMM estimator. Results show that higher GDP per capita (β ≈ +0.35, p < 0.05) significantly supports sustainable logistics, while higher energy intensity (β ≈ −0.41, p < 0.01) constrains it. Across the region, GDP per capita increased by 45% on average, and energy intensity (EI) declined by 18%, contributing to a steady rise in SDI, particularly in Finland, Germany, and Denmark. Renewable energy (RES) has heterogeneous effects: it promotes sustainability in Germany, Finland, and Latvia, but negatively affects Sweden, where rapid energy transition and high electricity costs temporarily reduce logistics efficiency. Electrification rate (RE) also shows a short-term adverse effect in Sweden and Finland, where investment speed exceeds infrastructure adaptability. Labour productivity (LP) and unemployment (UR) exhibit inconsistent effects. Overall, the findings confirm GDP per capita and energy efficiency as dominant drivers of sustainable logistics, while structural and policy differences explain cross-country heterogeneity in sustainability outcomes. These insights provide practical guidance for policymakers by emphasising the need to balance energy transition speed with infrastructure readiness and to tailor sustainability strategies to national economic and energy profiles.