Environmental Thermodynamic Effects on Future Changes of Mesoscale Convective Systems and Isolated Deep Convection Over the US: A Case Study

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and isolated deep convection (IDC) significantly influence local weather conditions and the hydrological cycle across the United States. Their future changes under warming is critical to the society. However, the exact impacts of thermodynamic environmental changes on them are difficult to resolve using climate model simulations which integrate both dynamic and thermodynamic factors. This study explores a theoretical modeling approach to isolate environmental thermodynamic effects on their future changes through a case study. For a 50‐day period during the 2020 summer, a pair of convection‐permitting model simulations indicate contrasting changes in MCSs and IDC between inland and coastal regions under pseudo global warming. Driven by the thermodynamic environments of these simulations, a single‐column parcel model indicates a decrease in the frequency of IDC occurrences, along with increases in duration and precipitation amount under warming, attributable to rising most unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE), convective inhibition (MUCIN), and precipitable water (PW). A multi‐column parcel model reveals contrasting changes in the frequency and mean area of MCSs between inland and coastal regions, underscoring the increase in mean MUCIN over inland regions and increases in mean MUCAPE and PW over coastal regions. The increase in mean MCS area over inland regions is linked to the interplay between accelerated gust fronts and enhanced subsidence strength, which is further traced to the unchanged mean MUCIN but increased mean MUCAPE in large‐scale environments. These case study results suggest a major role of thermodynamic environmental changes in controlling characteristics of MCSs and IDC under warming.