Comparing the climate and air pollution footprints of Lithium-ion BEVs and ICEs in the US incorporating systemic energy system responses

With rising travel demand and the need to tackle both the air quality and climate change challenges caused by fossil fuel vehicles, there is an urgent need to transition to cleaner and more sustainable fuels. While lithium-ion battery electric vehicles (BEVs) produce no emissions during operation, they increase electricity consumption, affecting emissions from that activity. Furthermore, there is an ongoing debate about the overall cleanliness of lithium-ion batteries when assessing emissions throughout their lifecycle compared to fossil fuels. To address these concerns, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) integrated assessment model (IAM) to evaluate criteria air pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions across four scenarios of increasing BEV adoption in the United States (US). We include emissions from fuel and battery production, vehicle manufacturing, and operation for both BEV and fossil-based internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Results indicate that each additional kWh of lithium-ion battery output leads to an average reduction of 220 kg of CO 2 in 2030 and 127 kg of CO 2 in 2050. There are also substantial decreases in CO emissions, although relatively small changes in SO 2 and NO X . In a life cycle assessment, all else equal, the CO 2 emissions associated with BEVs are 30% higher than those of ICE vehicles during the first two years. However, after the second year, BEVs result in a reduction in cumulative CO 2 emissions. Accounting for the effects of both air pollution and climate change, the economic value of the damages attributable to ICEs over their lifetime is currently 2 to 3.5 times that of BEVs. This ratio increases over the coming decades as the emissions intensity of the electricity sector decreases.