Personality Traits and Vote Switching: A Tale of Open-Minded Switchers and Agreeable Populism Resisters

Abstract In increasingly individualised Western societies, personality is becoming a key factor in understanding political behaviour. While some voting patterns are well researched, this article examines a less studied topic: the influence of the Big Five personality traits on vote switching. Based on three waves of an online survey panel from Germany (June 2022, January 2023, October 2023; N = 4351), adjusted for sociodemographics and party preferences, we used t‑tests, logistic regression, and mediation analyses to examine two forms of vote switching: a) general switching (regardless of party), and b) switching to the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD). After controlling for age, gender, region, education, and income, we found that openness and conscientiousness significantly increased the likelihood of switching votes. No consistent effects were found for extraversion or agreeableness. We also found that conscientious individuals were more prone to switch to AfD, while openness, agreeableness, and neuroticism reduced the likelihood. Although the switch to AfD is largely mediated by left–right self-placement, there is no significant indirect effect via political orientation on general vote switching. Instead, there is strong evidence of a direct effect of openness and conscientiousness. These findings highlight the role of personality in electoral behaviour. Practical implications for political campaigning as well as limitations are also discussed in the article.