The impact of informal environmental regulation on total-factor carbon emission performance

Growing public concern over environmental issues has heightened the significance of examining the impact of informal environmental regulation (IER) on total-factor carbon emission performance (TFCEP), offering a novel pathway to advance sustainable development goals (SDGs). This study establishes a theoretical framework elucidating the influence of IER on TFCEP, followed by empirical analysis utilizing China’s provincial panel data from 2004 to 2019 through fixed-effects models, threshold regression, and the spatial Durbin model. The results demonstrate that: (1) IER exerts a significant positive influence on TFCEP. This significant impact persists even after rigorous endogeneity and robustness checks are conducted. Moreover, this impact is particularly pronounced during the 2012–2019 period and in western regions. (2) While the short-term impact of IER on TFCEP is statistically insignificant, it exhibits a significant positive effect once the intensity of IER or the level of green technology innovation surpasses specific thresholds. (3) IER not only improves local TFCEP but also generates substantial spatial spillover effects, elevating TFCEP in neighboring regions. By investigating the low-carbon transition effects of public participation in environmental governance, this study provides policymakers with fresh theoretical insights and empirical evidence to support SDGs.