Coupling and coordination mechanism and sustainable path of water resources-ecological environment-socio-economic system in Zhengzhou urban agglomeration

This study focuses on the Zhengzhou city cluster, establishing a comprehensive evaluation system for the water resources-ecological environment-socioeconomic (WES) system. Through multi-model analysis of the system's characteristics from 2012 to 2021, the findings reveal: (1) The system's overall development level has significantly improved, with Zhengzhou's comprehensive development index rising from 0.42 to 0.78, narrowing regional disparities while maintaining "core-periphery" differentiation; (2) Coupling coordination rose from "barely coordinated" (0.4-0.5) to "excellent coordination" (reaching 0.86 in Zhengzhou in 2021), highlighting strong policy-driven effects and the central city's leading role; (3) Water resources remain the primary constraint (initial obstacle coefficient for water consumption per 10,000 yuan GDP at 0.26), though socioeconomic constraints have intensified while ecological limitations have diminished in recent years; (4) The improved LSTM model demonstrates enhanced prediction reliability (RMSE reduced by 20%-25%), with scenario simulations showing that differentiated regulation could boost coordination growth to 4%-5%. Based on the findings, the study proposes the following recommendations: (1) Implement differentiated strategies: Core cities should advance "ecological-economic coupling", resource-based cities should focus on "dual improvement of water resources and economy", and ecologically sensitive cities should strengthen "dual guarantees of water resources and ecology"; (2) Enhance resource and environmental governance: Promote water-saving technologies, improve water resource management, reduce industrial wastewater discharge, and increase the proportion of ecological water use; (3) Optimize policy and model support: Advance the implementation of regional planning, refine dynamic calibration of LSTM models, and establish a collaborative monitoring platform. This research provides theoretical and practical references for sustainable development in the Zhengzhou city cluster and similar regions.