Impact of climate change on flowering phenology of indigenous flora in Tehsil Bhimber Azad Jammu and Kashmir Pakistan

Plants vital for ecosystem sustenance are highly vulnerable to climate change (CC) due to their immobility. This study examined the effects of CC on the flowering phenology of indigenous wild flora in Tehsil Bhimber of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), Pakistan. Five key climatic factors-maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil moisture and solar radiation-were analyzed to assess these impacts. In this study, 228 plant species were used and explored for primary data collection using quadrate method during years 2018-to-2020. The meta-data of climatic changes for previous 30 was gathered from literature using library, published papers, theses, online surfing and subsequently analyzed by using various statistical multivariate tools to find its correlation with current trends of CC. The results showed that family Asteraceae was dominant family with 24 species (10.50%), followed by Euphorbiaceae, Moraceae, Polygonaceae and Solanaceae containing 8 species each which all together accounts for (14.03%). Whereas flowering mechanism was observed prominent during months of August, July and June (55.7%, 55.3% and 52.2%), respectively. While minimum phenological responses were recorded in January and December (12.7% and 13.6%), respectively. The analysis depicted that most of plants showed reproductive phenological responses in summer (48.24%) while least phenological responses were recorded in winter (10.9%). It was found that a total of 5.6% days' delay in flowering per decade was recorded for many species due to CC. Among climatic parameters: soil moisture (r = 0.62) was the most affecting parameter on flowering phenology, followed by precipitation with moderate correlation (r = 0.60), humidity (r = 0.59), solar radiations (r = 0.51), mean min-temp (r = 0.46) and mean max-temp (r = 0.39). Environmental fitting analysis revealed that maximum temperature (25.6%), precipitation (23.4%) and solar radiation (23.4%) were the strongest predictors of phenological variation (PERMANOVA, P < 0.01). These variables also emerged as dominant vectors in the phenology-environment biplot, indicating a strong directional influence on flowering patterns across months. The study reveals that many wild plant species at the site are severely threatened by CC, risking for being threatened, endangered and extinction from nature. Immediate action from public and private sectors is essential for climate mitigation and adaptation for biodiversity conservation and support life sustenance of local communities of the area and it will definitely play positive and pivotal role in CC drastic impacts in the region and around the globe.