If the street is wet, is it raining? The fallacy of affirming the consequent and the misuse of valid statistical evidence

In this Debates and Perspectives article, I take the perspective in which there is past research that has misused valid statistical evidence by incorporating it into the reasoning known in formal logic as the “fallacy of affirming the consequent.” I explain what the fallacy is, provide details on how three published studies commit it, distinguish between valid statistical evidence and its misuse, and mention the logic of modus tollens as an alternative to the logic of the fallacy of affirming the consequent. I direct criticism at the research paradigm that the authors of the studies are practitioners of. A ramification for past research that has misused valid statistical evidence by incorporating it into the fallacy of affirming the consequent is that it needs to be re-examined and then reconducted using the logic of modus tollens.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Information Technology
Published
2025-10-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1177/02683962251365285
Primary Topic
Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

If the street is wet, is it raining? The fallacy of affirming the consequent and the misuse of valid statistical evidence

Allen S. Lee
Journal of Information Technology
Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
article

If the street is wet, is it raining? The fallacy of affirming the consequent and the misuse of valid statistical evidence

Allen S. Lee
article en

Abstract

In this Debates and Perspectives article, I take the perspective in which there is past research that has misused valid statistical evidence by incorporating it into the reasoning known in formal logic as the “fallacy of affirming the consequent.” I explain what the fallacy is, provide details on how three published studies commit it, distinguish between valid statistical evidence and its misuse, and mention the logic of modus tollens as an alternative to the logic of the fallacy of affirming the consequent. I direct criticism at the research paradigm that the authors of the studies are practitioners of. A ramification for past research that has misused valid statistical evidence by incorporating it into the fallacy of affirming the consequent is that it needs to be re-examined and then reconducted using the logic of modus tollens.

Journal of Information Technology
Virginia Commonwealth University (US)
Openalex Percentile: Top 71%
Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.