The Response Spectrum Theory of Seismology Is Wrong

The government's new regulatory standards for commercial nuclear power plants stipulate that the standard seismic motion for nuclear power plants is determined by the acceleration response spectrum. This approach treats large earthquakes as a collection of smaller ones and calculates the strength of each frequency of seismic waves reaching a nuclear power plant. The error of this approach is easily apparent when considering the changes that occur as seismic waves travel through geological strata. When seismic waves travel through hard rock, their propagation speed is fast (e.g., 3,000 m/s), resulting in intense vibrations, a short period, and a small Gal number. However, when they enter softer strata, their propagation speed slows (e.g., 200 m/s), resulting in intense vibrations, a long period, and a large Gal number. This is because the distance attenuation formula does not hold. Both the period and Gal number of seismic waves are most affected by the properties of the strata through which they travel. It is surprising that such a simple error has gone unnoticed until now. Even more surprising is the use of the Matsuda formula to determine the design basis earthquake motion (seismic resistance standards) for nuclear power plants. A quick look at Matsuda's graph reveals that the answer is the average value of the Matsuda formula. If the seismic resistance standards were determined based on the average value, half of future earthquakes would exceed the design basis earthquake motion. The design basis earthquake motion for nuclear power plants was exceeded five times in just seven years, from 2005 to 2011. It has been proven five times that if the design basis earthquake motion is determined using the Matsuda formula, future earthquakes will definitely exceed this value. Seismologists not only lack a basic understanding of regression analysis, which first-year university students learn, but they also cannot properly read graphs. For over 50 years, they have been engaged in child's play called research, resulting in the loss of many lives through flawed disaster prevention measures. University research misconduct prevention committees continue to suppress opinions that point out their errors and publish dangerous disaster prevention measures. It is scientifically impossible to establish design basis earthquake motion for nuclear power plants. There is no way to guarantee that nuclear power plants are earthquake-safe. If a nuclear accident were to occur, Japan would become uninhabitable. Nuclear power plants must be shut down and decommissioned as soon as possible.