Political Risks of Cooperation between the EAEU and the Belt and Road Initiative: A View from Chinese Think Tanks

The subject of the research is political and discursive model of risk assessment developed by Chinese think tanks in the process of aligning the Belt and Road Initiative with the Eurasian Economic Union. The object of the research is strategic interaction between EAEU and China’s BRI, which is gaining particular significance amid the transformation of geopolitical and economic processes in Eurasia. The author examines in detail the role of Chinese analytical centers as active actors in shaping foreign policy discourse, analyzing their methods of interpreting and neutralizing political risks, and revealing how rhetorical and institutional instruments help create a positive perception of China’s international initiatives. Particular attention is given to the institutional differences between EAEU and BRI, geopolitical rivalry in Central Asia, and the role of China’s soft power in reducing strategic uncertainty. The methodological framework of the study includes discourse analysis, comparative-historical method, and content analysis of analytical reports by Chinese research centers. This approach made it possible to identify rhetorical strategies and cognitive schemes shaping the perception of political risks within Eurasian integration. The scientific novelty of the research lies in viewing Chinese think tanks as independent participants in the foreign policy process, performing not only expert and prognostic but also ideological functions in shaping the strategy of EAEU–BRI alignment. The study demonstrates that they interpret political risks not as threats but as manageable elements of strategic dialogue, facilitating a balance of interests between China and Russia. It concludes that the successful development of Eurasian integration depends on institutional synergy and sustained political dialogue between the two sides. The contribution of the research lies in providing a deeper understanding of the mechanisms through which China constructs the perception of political risks, transforming them into a tool for building trust and strengthening the stability of regional cooperation.