Prevalence and determinants of false pregnancy diagnosis in buffaloes: Field evidence from Andhra Pradesh, India

Accurate and timely pregnancy diagnosis is vital for efficient reproductive management and economic sustainability in buffalo husbandry. This study examines prevalence and determinants of false pregnancy diagnosis in buffaloes under field conditions across four major buffalo–rearing districts of Andhra Pradesh: Guntur, Prakasam, Krishna and Nellore. A multistage random sampling method yielded data from 240 dairy farmers and 415 buffaloes, capturing information on visual observation of estrus for pregnancy diagnosis (VOB) at 21±3–days intervals and rectal palpation (RP) conducted 60–120 days post-AI. The diagnostic accuracy of both methods was evaluated for sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and overall accuracy. VOB, though widely used, showed high sensitivity but low specificity, resulting in a considerable rate of false positives. In contrast, RP demonstrated significantly higher accuracy and reliability. Binary logistic regression was employed to identify factors influencing false diagnosis. For VOB, increased farmer experience and awareness significantly reduced false diagnosis risk, while larger herd sizes, poor body condition, reproductive disorders and high ambient temperatures elevated the risk. For RP, higher animal parity reduced false diagnosis odds, whereas poor body condition and specific seasonal contexts slightly compromised accuracy.