Longer growing seasons will not offset growth loss in drought-prone temperate forests of Central-Southeast Europe

The radial growth of temperate forests responds to climate change with remarkable variation across space and between species. However, there is limited understanding of how growing season extension and increasing drought stress contribute to long-term growth trends. Here, we calibrate the VS-Lite growth model using 2013 tree-ring chronologies from ten broadleaved and five coniferous genera in Central-Southeast Europe to predict intra-annual wood formation under four SSP climate scenarios through the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Results show that forecasted summer drought stress will be temporarily offset by an extended growing season, leading to stable or positive trends in tree-ring widths until a tipping point in the 2040s-2050s. During the second half of the 21<sup>st</sup> century, high-emission scenarios lead to growth acceleration in humid coniferous forests due to growing season extension and enhanced growth rate. In contrast, forecasted extension of the growing season is insufficient to compensate for declining summer growth rates at drier sites, resulting in significant growth reduction for all genera, particularly during dry years. Our results demonstrate that adjusting intra-annual wood formation to seasonal moisture availability may become crucial for tree survival in warmer climates. Furthermore, we highlight that only low-emission scenarios support non-declining stem growth in dry forests with current species composition.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2025-10-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64568-8
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Tree-ring climate responses
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
1.30
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article

Longer growing seasons will not offset growth loss in drought-prone temperate forests of Central-Southeast Europe

Emil Cienciala, Jakub Kašpar, Jan Altman, Tomáš Kolář et al.
1 citations
Nature Communications
Tree-ring climate responses
1.30
article

Longer growing seasons will not offset growth loss in drought-prone temperate forests of Central-Southeast Europe

Emil Cienciala, Jakub Kašpar, Jan Altman, Tomáš Kolář, Tomáš Čihák, Pavel Janda, Martin Šenfeldr, Jan Tumajer, Jiří Lehejček, Pavel Šamonil, Ryszard J. Kaczka, Kateřina Neudertová Hellebrandová, J. Julio Camarero, Ivana Vašíčková, Václav Treml, Miloš Rydval, Vojtěch Čada, Rohan Shetti, Pavel Fibich, Michal Rybníček, Miroslav Svoboda, Jiří Doležal, Monika Vejpustková, Lenka Plavcová, Jiří Mašek, Nela Altmanová, Radim Matula
article en
1 citations

Abstract

The radial growth of temperate forests responds to climate change with remarkable variation across space and between species. However, there is limited understanding of how growing season extension and increasing drought stress contribute to long-term growth trends. Here, we calibrate the VS-Lite growth model using 2013 tree-ring chronologies from ten broadleaved and five coniferous genera in Central-Southeast Europe to predict intra-annual wood formation under four SSP climate scenarios through the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Results show that forecasted summer drought stress will be temporarily offset by an extended growing season, leading to stable or positive trends in tree-ring widths until a tipping point in the 2040s-2050s. During the second half of the 21<sup>st</sup> century, high-emission scenarios lead to growth acceleration in humid coniferous forests due to growing season extension and enhanced growth rate. In contrast, forecasted extension of the growing season is insufficient to compensate for declining summer growth rates at drier sites, resulting in significant growth reduction for all genera, particularly during dry years. Our results demonstrate that adjusting intra-annual wood formation to seasonal moisture availability may become crucial for tree survival in warmer climates. Furthermore, we highlight that only low-emission scenarios support non-declining stem growth in dry forests with current species composition.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 16(1)
Agharkar Research Institute (IN), Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZ), Charles University (CZ), Jan Evangelista Purkyně University in Ústí nad Labem (CZ), University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice (CZ), Institute of Botany of the Slovak Academy of Sciences (SK), Institute of Landscape Ecology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences (SK), Czech Academy of Sciences, Global Change Research Institute (CZ), Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research (CZ), Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (ES), Forestry and Game Management Research Institute (CZ), Institute of Botany (AM), Mendel University in Brno (CZ)
Openalex Percentile: Top 17%
Tree-ring climate responses
1.30
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