Integrating spatial risk analysis into sustainable territorial development: A complex approach in the context of the Shaki-Zagatala economic region

Strengthening the interrelations between spatial risk analysis and sustainable territorial development has emerged in recent years as one of the key directions in geographical and socio-economic research. This study employs a complex approach to ensure the integration of spatial risk factors into sustainable territorial development processes. The Shaki-Zagatala economic region of the Republic of Azerbaijan was selected as the pilot area within the framework of the research. In the contemporary context of increasing natural and technogenic risks, global climate change, and the growing complexity of socio-economic and territorial development processes, the importance of spatial risk analysis and management defines the relevance of this research. This study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of natural-technological processes occurring between 1950 and 2024 in the six administrative districts (Shaki, Zagatala, Gabala, Balaken, Oghuz, and Gakh) of the Shaki-Zagatala economic region. Statistical analyses are conducted to explore the relationship between population density and the intensity of natural-technological disasters. By applying a combination of advanced spatial-statistical methods, such as the Moran’s I, Getis-Ord Gi* and Analytic Hierarchy Process, the study aims to evaluate the correlation between population density and disaster frequency, identifying high-risk areas and their temporal patterns. In the presented article, as a result of the complex studies conducted to achieve the set objectives, a map of the spatial distribution of natural disaster risks in the Shaki-Zagatala economic region has been developed. The results obtained allow for the identification of the area’s risk profile and the establishment of key priorities for long-term growth. A strategic planning model has been developed based on the identified opportunities and challenges in the field of sustainable territorial development.