Affect and prediction in short-video social media recommendation algorithm: TikTok and the missing half-second

This article examines the relationship between prediction and serendipity in the short-video social media platform TikTok, analyzing its recommendation algorithm through the lenses of affective and pragmatic turns in cognitive science. By looking at TikTok’s user experience, I demonstrate that while predictive models are crucial for user engagement, elements of surprise and unpredictability are equally essential for maintaining user interest. The study draws on theories of perception, emotion processing, and affect to provide a comprehensive understanding of the cognitive and embodied dimensions of digital social media experiences. I argue that TikTok’s success lies in its unique integration of both predictive accuracy and serendipitous discovery, creating an “indeterminacy center” that keeps users engaged. This research contributes to the broader understanding of social media dynamics, offering insights into the balance between prediction and serendipity in digital platforms.

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Publication Details

Journal
New Media & Society
Published
2025-10-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1177/14614448251385086
Citations
2
Primary Topic
Media Influence and Health
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
30.35
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article

Affect and prediction in short-video social media recommendation algorithm: TikTok and the missing half-second

Julia Salles
2 citations
New Media & Society
Media Influence and Health
30.35
article

Affect and prediction in short-video social media recommendation algorithm: TikTok and the missing half-second

Julia Salles
article en
2 citations

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between prediction and serendipity in the short-video social media platform TikTok, analyzing its recommendation algorithm through the lenses of affective and pragmatic turns in cognitive science. By looking at TikTok’s user experience, I demonstrate that while predictive models are crucial for user engagement, elements of surprise and unpredictability are equally essential for maintaining user interest. The study draws on theories of perception, emotion processing, and affect to provide a comprehensive understanding of the cognitive and embodied dimensions of digital social media experiences. I argue that TikTok’s success lies in its unique integration of both predictive accuracy and serendipitous discovery, creating an “indeterminacy center” that keeps users engaged. This research contributes to the broader understanding of social media dynamics, offering insights into the balance between prediction and serendipity in digital platforms.

New Media & Society
Université de Montréal (CA)
Openalex Percentile: Top 1%
Media Influence and Health
30.35
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Affect and prediction in short-video social media recommendation algorithm: TikTok and the missing half-second — Julia Salles · New Media & Society (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS