Keeping the momentum in South Africa’s intensive export growth margin

Background: In the context of South Africa’s commitment to export-led growth, attention has traditionally centred on expanding the export base through new products and markets. However, a substantial share of the country’s trade performance is driven by intensifying exports of existing products to established partners, an area known as the intensive margin. Setting: South Africa Aim: Recognising the importance of the intensive margin, this study investigates which of South Africa’s current product–country combinations remain underexploited and warrant strategic focus. Method: Employing a structured three-phase analytical framework, the research begins by identifying global product–country opportunities based on import demand dynamics and market competitiveness. These are then cross-referenced with South Africa’s existing export relationships to isolate underutilised channels within the intensive margin. Finally, a composite Market Attractiveness Index (MAI) is developed to prioritise these opportunities across dimensions such as demand scale, growth trends, accessibility and export competitiveness. Results: The dominance of Western Europe and Asian markets – especially Germany, China, the Republic of Korea and India – reinforces the importance of deepening existing trade relationships where South Africa already holds competitive advantages. Moreover, the emergence of high-potential combinations across a diverse range of sectors signals that targeted export promotion strategies should not be limited to primary commodities but should also include value-added and niche industrial products. Conclusion: The study uncovers actionable insights into where South Africa can enhance its export impact. Contribution: Supporting more efficient, data-driven trade promotion policies within its current global footprint.