A Geostatistical Predictive Framework for 3D Lithological Modeling of Heterogeneous Subsurface Systems Using Empirical Bayesian Kriging 3D (EBK3D) and GIS

Predicting subsoil properties accurately is important for engineering tasks like construction, land development, and environmental management. However, traditional approaches that use borehole data often face challenges because the data is sparse and unevenly spread, which can cause uncertainty in understanding the subsurface. This study introduces a novel geostatistical framework employing Empirical Bayesian Kriging 3D (EBK3D) within a Geographic Information System (GIS), which was developed to construct three-dimensional lithological models. The framework was applied to 265 boreholes from the Queen Mary Reservoir in London. ArcGIS Pro was used to interpolate lithology layers using EBK3D, resulting in voxel-based models that represent both horizontal and vertical lithological variations. Model validation was performed with an independent dataset comprising 30% of the boreholes. The results demonstrated high predictive accuracy for layer elevations (Pearson’s r = 0.99, MAE = 0.31 m). The model achieved 100% accuracy in predicting borehole stratigraphy in homogenous zones and correctly identified 77% of lithological layers in heterogeneous zones. In complex regions, the model accurately predicted the whole borehole in 49% of cases. This framework provides a reliable, repeatable, and cost-effective method for three-dimensional subsurface characterization, enhancing traditional approaches by automating uncertainty quantification and capturing both vertical and horizontal variability.