Prediction and Spatiotemporal Transfer of Vegetation Vulnerability in the South African Coastal Zone Under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Scenarios

Against the background of the rapid transformation of traditional economies and societies and continuous global climate change, how to ensure the long-term stability of the coastal ecological environment has become a key issue to be studied. In this paper, we take the 20 km buffer zone extending inland from the South African coastal zone as the study area. By constructing a vegetation vulnerability evaluation system, the current and future scenarios are compared in depth based on the base period (2010–2020), the near term (2030–2059), and the long term (2070–2099) with the help of GIS spatial analysis, the Moran index, and other methods. The results show that there are obvious spatial differences in vegetation vulnerability in the South African coastal zone. The extremely vulnerable areas of vegetation are mostly distributed on the west coast of South Africa, and some areas have obvious high–high aggregation patterns. The transfer of SSP1-2.6 scenarios in the near term is relatively stable, and the vegetation vulnerability level rebounds significantly in the long term; the vulnerability level of SSP2-4.5 scenarios has increased in both the near term and the long term, indicating that the risk of vegetation vulnerability has increased; while the SSP5-8.5 scenario has a significant deterioration trend in the long term, and the risk of vegetation vulnerability shifting to a high vulnerability level has increased significantly. Land use type has a significant impact on the response of vegetation vulnerability to SSP prediction. In the process of transformation from the base period to the long term, the proportion of vegetation vulnerability shifting to extremely vulnerable and severely vulnerable levels is notably high for both cultivated land and forest land—particularly under high-emission scenarios, driven by agricultural intensification for cultivated land and climate stress for forest land. This paper deeply explores the spatiotemporal evolution law and driving mechanism of vegetation vulnerability in the South African coastal zone under different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, providing decision support for better development and protection of the South African coastal zone in the future.