Climate policy uncertainty and its impact on major tuber crops futures in low-income food deficit countries

Purpose This paper examines the nexus between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and its impact on major tuber crop futures, focusing on low-income food-deficit countries (LIFDCs) heavily reliant on tuber crops. Design/methodology/approach This study investigates this phenomenon with a focus on climate policy uncertainty. We employ quantile regression analyses. Findings Notably, our study found that CPU significantly shapes tuber crop futures, with effects varying by crop and context – stronger at higher quantiles for potatoes in Rwanda and Mali, persistent across all quantiles in Yemen, concentrated in upper tails for yams in Togo and Mali and divergent for cassava, boosting futures in Rwanda and Togo but dampening them in Benin. Research limitations/implications Findings suggest that clearer and more supportive climate policies are crucial for stabilizing tuber crop markets and enhancing food security in LIFDCs. This calls for clear, stable and credible climate policies. Practical implications Findings suggest that clearer and more supportive climate policies are crucial for stabilizing tuber crop markets and enhancing food security in LIFDCs. This calls for clear, stable and credible climate policies. Social implications Findings suggest that clearer and more supportive climate policies are crucial for stabilizing tuber crop markets and enhancing food security in LIFDCs. This calls for clear, stable and credible climate policies. Originality/value Our study examines the impact of climate policy uncertainty on futures of major tuber crops in low-income food-deficit countries (LIFDCs). This study offers some guidance for climate policy and futures markets in food-deficit countries.