A Crisis-Proof Electrical Power System: Desirable Characteristics and Investment Decision Support Approaches

Electricity expansion planning is inherently subject to uncertainty, shaped by climatic, regulatory, and economic risks. In Brazil, this challenge is compounded by recurrent crises that have repeatedly reduced electricity demand. This study proposes a complementary decision-support approach to make planning more resilient to such crises. Using Brazil’s official optimization models (NEWAVE), we introduce two analytical elements: (i) a regret-minimization screen for choosing between conservative and optimistic demand trajectories and (ii) a flexibility stress test that evaluates the cost impact of compulsory-dispatch shares in generation portfolios. Key findings show that conservative demand projections systematically minimize consumer-cost regret when crises occur, while portfolios with lower compulsory-dispatch shares reduce total system cost and improve adaptability across 2000 hydro inflow scenarios. These results highlight that crisis-robust planning requires combining cautious demand assumptions with flexible supply portfolios. Although grounded in the Brazilian context, the methodological contributions are generalizable and provide practical guidance for other electricity markets facing deep and recurrent uncertainty.