Influence of Scenarios for Space Heating and Domestic Hot Water in Buildings on the Winter Electricity Demand of Switzerland in 2050

Switzerland’s energy transition toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 presents a critical challenge in managing winter electricity demand, particularly due to the widespread electrification of space heating and domestic hot water. In this study, we assess how targeted measures in the building sector can influence heat demand and thereby also the winter electricity gap. To this end, we extended the existing PowerCheck simulation tool by incorporating a detailed bottom-up representation of the Swiss building stock. We model hourly heat and electricity demand across 60 building categories, defined by climate zone, usage type, and insulation standard. Twelve future scenarios are developed based on variations in four key parameters: building renovation rate, hot water heat recovery, heat sources used by heat pumps, and ambient temperature trends. Our results indicate that renovation of old buildings to current insulation standards has by far the greatest effect out of the studied parameters. Increasing the annual thermal renovation rate of building shells from the currently planned 1.1% to 2% can reduce the winter electricity gap from 10.7 TWh to 6.0 TWh, a 44% reduction. Conversely, achieving only a low renovation rate of 0.5% could increase the gap to 13.9 TWh. Additional measures, such as greater use of ground-source instead of air-source heat pumps and implementation of hot water recovery, offer further potential for reduction. These findings underscore the importance of early and sustained investment in thermal renovation of building shells for achieving Switzerland’s 2050 net-zero climate targets.