Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics on Ecosystem Services and Values in the Southwest Mau Forest, Kenya

The larger Mau forest in Kenya, a major water tower, has experienced forest cover loss over the past decades due to human‐induced factors, including deforestation, illegal logging, and the expansion of agricultural land. These human‐induced pressures have resulted in major land use changes that have rippling effects on ecosystem services from forests. However, quantitative assessments of the changes in forest ecosystem service values due to land use and land cover changes are scarce. Using a case of the Southwest Mau forest block in Kenya, this study estimated the impact of land use and land cover changes over three epochs (1976, 2001, and 2023). Over 49 years, landscape images to assess the historical land use change in the forest block were processed using Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) at 60‐m resolution, Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) at 30‐m plus, the 15‐m panchromatic band, and lastly, the Sentinel images at 10‐m resolution. The ecosystem service values were calculated using the benefit transfer method and estimated local value coefficients based on the land use types. Seven land use classes were successfully classified: dense forest, open forest, shrubland, grassland, subsistence cropland, plantation cropland, and bare areas. In addition, focus group discussions were held with key community representatives to validate the findings. The data collected were analyzed using a geographic information system and Excel. The findings reveal a reduction in areas under dense and open forests and an increase in areas under shrubland, grassland, and cropland. Consequently, there was an overall reduction of 22% of the total ecosystem services value from US$62.96 million in 1976 to US$51.54 million in 2023. Assessment of the individual ecosystem services revealed that 15 of the 17 had a negative change, while biological control and production services registered a positive change. The policy is suggested to strengthen the governance structures to prevent excessive deforestation and land use conversions to cropland.