Predictive value of prior academic and psychosocial factors on first-year students’ academic achievement at Wallaga University

This study aims to determine to what extent prior academic performance (secondary school Grade Point Average (GPA) and Ethiopian University Entrance Exam (EUEE) scores) and the psychosocial factors (academic motivation, self-esteem, academic self-efficacy, perceived stress, academic adjustment, and perceived social support) predict first-year students’ Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGPA). To this end, correlational research design was employed. Data were gathered using Academic Motivation Scale, Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale, Academic Self-Efficacy Scale, Perceived Stress Scale, Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support Scale, Academic Adjustment Scale, Ethiopian University Entrance Examination, Secondary School GPA, and First-year CGPA. The research involved 343 first-year regular students of Wallaga University. Results revealed that academic motivation (r =.686; p < .001), self-esteem (r =.849; p < .001), academic adjustment (r =.771; p < .001), secondary school CGPA (r =.643; p < .001), and EUEE (r = .266; p < .001) were correlated positively and significantly with first-year students’ CGPA, while perceived stress (r= −.164; p = .002) is negatively correlated with academic achievement. Moreover, self-esteem (β = .539; p < .01), secondary school CGPA (β =.232; p < .01), academic adjustment (β =.219; p < .01), and academic self-efficacy (β = −.075; p < .01) were found to be the significant predictors of first-year students’ CGPA. Demographic variables, such as students’ sex, the place where they grew up, and parents’ level of education were also shown to be important determinant factors influencing students’ academic success i.e. being male, being grew up in urban settings, and being from parents with higher educational status were important contributors for students’ academic achievement. It is recommended that university leaders and instructors should provide the necessary support for their students’ psychosocial adjustment by reducing their stress levels and thereby improve their CGPA. Studying psychosocial factors alongside prior academic performance factors is crucial because it provides a more holistic understanding of student success and failure. Thus, in the context of the Ethiopian higher education, where dropout rates remain a significant concern, this research offers valuable empirical evidence to inform institutional practices and policy interventions aimed at enhancing student retention and academic outcomes.