Anomalous glaciers response to climate variability in the Karakoram region

Karakoram glaciers exhibit steady mass or expansion in the central and western Karakoram, contrasting with the retreat observed in the eastern Karakoram and respond differently to climatic conditions compared to glaciers in the world — a phenomenon termed as the Karakoram Anomaly. The absence of long-term ground-based monitoring of climatic variables and glaciers observations in addition to the region’s complex terrain, remote location, and harsh climate pose a serious challenge to find a precise explanation for anomalous glaciers behavior and their response to ongoing climate variability. This study compares a high-resolution (10 m) geodetic glaciers data set from 1991 to 2022 with climate variables to assess the glaciers mass balance condition across different elevations in the Hunza and Shigar basins and to examine their relationship with climatic drivers. We observe that glaciers maintain a stable mass balance regardless of elevation. Above 4500 m above sea level, glaciers exhibit surges under the unique climate warming of the twenty first century with slight reduction in snowfall—a phenomenon we refer to as the Karakoram Climate Response Anomaly (KCRA). We find that the unique mountainous land and a predominantly north-facing aspect are the main cause of glaciers stability despite prevailing warming climate signatures in the Karakoram range. However, future projections based on CMIP6 ensemble scenarios indicate a challenging future for glaciers sustainability, with rising temperatures and declining precipitation, particularly in the western Karakoram. These findings underscore the critical need for continuous field observations of glaciers and climate conditions to better understand and predict glacier responses to evolving climate conditions in Karakoram.