Predicting the burden of co-infections in seasonally driven dynamics of pediatric rotavirus and norovirus

Rotavirus and norovirus are principal viral agents of acute gastroenteritis, primarily transmitted through close contact. Although each virus has its own capability to spread the epidemic, rotavirus and norovirus infection simultaneously is known to have more serious repercussions for children. To examine this coalition, we construct a robust co-infection mathematical model to analyze the prevalence of these diseases and the factors influenced by varying seasonal transmission rates. We conduct numerical simulations and equilibria analyses to capture the dynamics of the individual diseases and their co-infections. We investigate basic and seasonal reproductive numbers, perform sensitivity analysis on key parameters, and numerically explore shifts in the timing and strength of seasonal transmission rates. The research demonstrates how seasonal dynamics significantly impact reproductive numbers, as well as drive the potential burden of co-infection.