COVID‐19, political orientation, and residential real estate returns

Abstract We use the COVID‐19 pandemic as a shock to partisan‐based perceptions of risk and study its effect on residential real estate returns. Using county–month data from January to December 2020, difference‐in‐differences estimates show that Democratic‐leaning counties and those with greater liberal‐news viewership experienced monthly return declines of about 0.8–1.2 percentage points, wiping out the typical 0.80% monthly gain at the onset of the crisis. This pattern is not explained by flight from dense or urban locations. Mechanism tests point primarily to partisan differences in economic expectations, amplified by political uncertainty. Overall, our findings suggest that political orientation matters for asset returns primarily in the presence of external shocks such as COVID‐19.