Assessment of waste lithium-ion batteries generation from laptops and mobile phones in Saudi Arabia: Forecasting, material recovery, and recycling profitability

Electronic waste (e-waste) is one of the fastest-growing waste streams globally, presenting significant environmental and resource recovery challenges. Small IT and screen devices, such as mobile phones and laptops, contain valuable metals and lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), necessitating efficient end-of-life management. Saudi Arabia, as one of the largest e-waste generators in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, lacks comprehensive assessments of obsolete devices, particularly waste LIBs. Addressing this gap is crucial for developing effective policies and recycling strategies. This study estimates waste LIB generation from obsolete laptops and mobile phones in Saudi Arabia between 2000 and 2030. A forecasting approach integrating the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model with a Weibull distribution-based model is used to project past and future waste generation. Results indicate that by 2030, a total of 7515 tons of waste will be generated from these devices, including 1110 tons of waste LIBs. The study highlights substantial resource recovery potential, with 77.74 tons each of cobalt and lithium, along with 177 tons of graphite and 166 tons of aluminum, available for recycling by 2030. Among recycling technologies, hydrometallurgical processing offers the highest economic viability, with an estimated average net profit of $2.96 million. These findings underscore the urgent need for structured e-waste and waste battery management policies and infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, promoting economic and environmental benefits through enhanced resource recovery and circular economy integration.