Effect of weather on crowd motion accidents

Weather conditions are critical to safety at mass events, impacting pedestrian movement and emergency evacuation. This study analyzed fatal crowd accidents and their correlation with weather. Data from 161 fatal crowd crush accidents (CCA) at mass gatherings in 65 countries (2000–2024) were collected, including location, date, attendance, casualties, fatalities, weather conditions, and population density data. Apparent temperature (AT) and Humidex (HI) were calculated for the accident days and the preceding and following days. Descriptive analysis and multivariate linear regression model were conducted. The majority of fatal accidents (61 %, n = 98) occurred in countries with higher population densities. In 59.74 % of cases, the Humidex was above the high discomfort threshold (>30 °C) on the day of the accident. We found a positive monotonic correlation between the number of fatalities, attendance, and air pressure characteristics in the period following and on the day of the accident. Due to the increased risk of accidents at mass gatherings, risk prevention services and governmental bodies must enact specialized, coordinated measures to mitigate such occurrences. A comprehensive analysis of atmospheric conditions is paramount in preventing accidents. • Higher incidence of fatal crowd accidents in tropical climates. • Elevated temperatures, air pressure, and apparent temperatures on accident days. • Extreme meteorological conditions observed in nearly a quarter of accidents. • Correlation between air pressure and fatality rate. • Higher accident occurrence in densely populated countries.