Long Term Rain Patterns of Major Watersheds in Saudi Arabia

Understanding long-term rainfall variability is essential for addressing Saudi Arabia’s growing challenges of water scarcity, climate resilience, and sustainable resource management in its arid to hyper-arid environment. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variations and long-term rainfall trends across the 13 administrative regions of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) using four decades of observed data (1982–2021) from the National Center for Meteorology (NCM). The non-parametric Mann–Kendall (M–K) test and Sen’s slope estimator were applied to detect and quantify rainfall trends. Results reveal that 10 of the 13 regions show statistically significant negative trends, excluding the Eastern, Mecca, and Tabuk regions, with declines ranging from −4 to −16 mm/yr. The most pronounced decreases occurred in Hail, Al-Qassim, Riyadh, Medina, and Asir, while Mecca and Tabuk exhibited weak positive signals during the last decade, likely linked to Red Sea Trough dynamics. Seasonal analysis indicates the largest declines during winter and spring, crucial periods for groundwater recharge and agriculture, whereas summer rainfall remains localized in the southwestern highlands with a slight decreasing trend. Overall, rainfall variability in Saudi Arabia reflects both long-term drying and short-term oscillations. The findings provide a robust rainfall baseline to support water security, climate adaptation, and sustainable management strategies in one of the world’s driest regions.