Integrating Social Conflicts into Sustainable Decision-Making of the Forest-to-Lumber Supply Chain

The sustainable management of forest supply chains is particularly challenging in regions affected by socio-territorial conflicts, such as southern Chile, where Indigenous land claims and environmental concerns complicate operations. This study develops and applies a multi-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model to support tactical planning of the forest-to-lumber supply chain. The model operates the three pillars of sustainability through representative variables: raw material consumption (economic efficiency), transport distance (environmental impact), and exposure to territorial conflicts (social risk). These sustainability dimensions are consistent with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure), 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), and 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions). Computational experiments reveal Pareto trade-offs between productive efficiency and social vulnerability, showing that simpler logistics networks can substantially reduce conflict exposure without significant efficiency losses. Additionally, the strategy of minimizing the production of lumber that does not have immediate demand also helps reduce log consumption and improves log yield. The results provide a decision-oriented framework for conflict-sensitive supply chain planning, contributing to more resilient, socially responsible, and sustainable forest operations in Chile.