Drivers of Milk Production Decisions on Polish Family Farms: A Classification Tree Approach

Most Polish commercial dairy farms have expanded their production in recent years through herd increases and milk yield improvements. This study investigates internal and external drivers shaping farmers’ decisions regarding the future scale of milk production on family farms in Poland. The analysis is based on two sources of data. The primary input comes from a survey conducted in 2025 among 549 commercial dairy farms. To situate individual responses within a broader structural context, accounting data from 444 farms that continuously reported to the Polish FADN between 2005 and 2022 were used. Although not central to the analysis, these data illustrate long-term sectoral developments, particularly herd enlargement and resource concentration. The survey demonstrated a diversity of drivers shaping decisions to expand or stabilise milk production in the next five years. Farmers’ individual characteristics play a central role. The farmer’s perceived health and work ability (5-year horizon), as well as the availability of a successor, strongly influence the willingness to expand or maintain milk production levels. Other important factors include tangible resources, organisational capacity, and financial strength, such as herd size, agricultural land area, and investment capacity. This highlights the role of production potential and farm adaptability. External conditions such as land access, lease prices, and the market environment are not decisive by themselves but provide the background against which farmers evaluate their options. The study confirms that no single factor drives changes in dairy farms. What matters most is how farmers configure and align their available resources with external circumstances. The ability to combine human, physical, and financial capital in a coherent and strategic way is essential for shaping production strategies and ensuring the continuity of farm operations.