A Multi-Source Data-Driven Fracturing Pressure Prediction Model

Accurate prediction of fracturing pressure is critical for operational safety and fracturing efficiency in unconventional reservoirs. Traditional physics-based models and existing deep learning architectures often struggle to capture the intense fluctuations and complex temporal dependencies observed in actual fracturing operations. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a multi-source data-driven fracturing pressure prediction model, a model integrating TCN-BiLSTM-Attention Mechanism (Temporal Convolutional Network, Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory, Attention Mechanism), and introduces a feature selection mechanism for fracture pressure prediction. This model employs TCN to extract multi-scale local fluctuation features, BiLSTM to capture long-term dependencies, and Attention to adaptively adjust feature weights. A two-stage feature selection strategy combining correlation analysis and ablation experiments effectively eliminates redundant features and enhances model robustness. Field data from the Sichuan Basin were used for model validation. Results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms baseline models (LSTM, BiLSTM, and TCN-BiLSTM) in mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2), particularly under high-fluctuation conditions. When integrated with slope reversal analysis, it achieves sand blockage warnings up to 41 s in advance, offering substantial potential for real-time decision support in fracturing operations.