Apparent annual survival of adult <i>Vermivora chrysoptera</i> (Golden-winged Warbler) does not differ by sex or region

Abstract Understanding range-wide demographic, spatial, and temporal variation in annual survival is essential for managing species of conservation concern. Multi-population models are useful tools for integrating diverse datasets, reducing biases, and deriving survival estimates across differing spatial scales. We conducted a range-wide, multi-population apparent annual survival analysis for a declining songbird, Vermivora chrysoptera (Golden-winged Warbler), using data from 18 sites across its breeding and nonbreeding grounds. This Nearctic-Neotropical migrant breeds in 2 disjunct regional populations, the Great Lakes and Appalachian Mountains, which are experiencing different rates of decline. We aimed to quantify regional-, site-, and sex-specific apparent annual survival estimates to identify geographic patterns or demographic factors influencing population declines. We used simulations to assess the precision of our estimates. Our models did not reveal a substantial difference in apparent annual survival between the Great Lakes (0.41, 95% credible interval (CrI):0.31–0.50) and the Appalachian regions (0.49, 95% CrI: 0.36–0.60), as CrIs overlapped. Site-specific estimates also showed no clear differences in apparent annual survival among sites representing both regional populations. Male apparent annual survival tended to be greater than female apparent annual survival in both regions, though CrI’s overlapped. Our study suggests demographic factors other than adult annual survival likely play a larger role in recent regional and range-wide population declines, such as productivity, juvenile/immature survival, or recruitment. Simulations indicate that improving recapture probability and study duration of datasets could lead to more precise apparent annual survival estimates. However, our model produced CrI ranges comparable to the most ideal data collection scenario, suggesting the lack of trends we found was not due to variability in our estimates. We stress the importance of addressing inherent biases in survival datasets and the need for standardized collaborative efforts to inform species conservation on a range-wide scale.

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Publication Details

Journal
The Auk
Published
2025-10-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1093/ornithology/ukaf049
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Avian ecology and behavior
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
1.72
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article

Apparent annual survival of adult Vermivora chrysoptera (Golden-winged Warbler) does not differ by sex or region

Ruth E. Bennett, Richard B. Chandler, Rachel Vallender, Emily Filiberti et al.
1 citations
The Auk
Avian ecology and behavior
1.72
article

Apparent annual survival of adult Vermivora chrysoptera (Golden-winged Warbler) does not differ by sex or region

Ruth E. Bennett, Richard B. Chandler, Rachel Vallender, Emily Filiberti, Petra Bohall Wood, Ronald A. Canterbury, Anna Buckardt Thomas, Gunnar R. Kramer, Lesley P. Bulluck, Amber M. Roth, Wayne E. Thogmartin, John Anthony Jones, Keith A. Hobson, Cameron J. Fiss, Steven L. Van Wilgenburg, Darin J. McNeil, Sarah J. Clements, Jeffery L. Larkin, Jeffrey D. Ritterson, Kyle R. Aldinger, David I. King, David A. Buehler, Ethan J. Royal
article en
1 citations

Abstract

Abstract Understanding range-wide demographic, spatial, and temporal variation in annual survival is essential for managing species of conservation concern. Multi-population models are useful tools for integrating diverse datasets, reducing biases, and deriving survival estimates across differing spatial scales. We conducted a range-wide, multi-population apparent annual survival analysis for a declining songbird, Vermivora chrysoptera (Golden-winged Warbler), using data from 18 sites across its breeding and nonbreeding grounds. This Nearctic-Neotropical migrant breeds in 2 disjunct regional populations, the Great Lakes and Appalachian Mountains, which are experiencing different rates of decline. We aimed to quantify regional-, site-, and sex-specific apparent annual survival estimates to identify geographic patterns or demographic factors influencing population declines. We used simulations to assess the precision of our estimates. Our models did not reveal a substantial difference in apparent annual survival between the Great Lakes (0.41, 95% credible interval (CrI):0.31–0.50) and the Appalachian regions (0.49, 95% CrI: 0.36–0.60), as CrIs overlapped. Site-specific estimates also showed no clear differences in apparent annual survival among sites representing both regional populations. Male apparent annual survival tended to be greater than female apparent annual survival in both regions, though CrI’s overlapped. Our study suggests demographic factors other than adult annual survival likely play a larger role in recent regional and range-wide population declines, such as productivity, juvenile/immature survival, or recruitment. Simulations indicate that improving recapture probability and study duration of datasets could lead to more precise apparent annual survival estimates. However, our model produced CrI ranges comparable to the most ideal data collection scenario, suggesting the lack of trends we found was not due to variability in our estimates. We stress the importance of addressing inherent biases in survival datasets and the need for standardized collaborative efforts to inform species conservation on a range-wide scale.

The AukVol. 143(1)
West Virginia University (US), Western University (CA), The Nature Conservancy (US), United States Geological Survey (US), Massachusetts Audubon Society (US), Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA), University of Kentucky (US), University of Georgia (US), University of Pittsburgh (US), Iowa State University (US), Virginia Commonwealth University (US), Indiana University of Pennsylvania (US), Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute (US), Knoxville College (US), Northern Research Station (US), National Zoological Park (US), West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey (US), Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife (US), Appalachian State University (US), Conservation Biology Institute, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, American Bird Conservancy, University of Cincinnati (US), University of Tennessee at Knoxville (US), Iowa Department of Natural Resources (US), University of Maine (US)
Openalex Percentile: Top 13%
Avian ecology and behavior
1.72
DOISourceOpenAlex
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