Dynamic agricultural supply response under Agricultural Transformation Agenda in Nigeria

Nigeria has been experiencing declining agricultural production over the past two decades despite the implementation of different policies to boost agricultural production. One such policy was the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA), implemented in 2011. However, it remains unclear whether ATA succeeded in boosting agricultural supply; this study examines that issue by assessing the effect of ATA on the supply responses of six major crops in Nigeria. We used secondary data spanning l980-20l9 from reliable institutions in Nigeria. The growth model, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator were used to analyze the dynamic nature of crop supply response to address endogeneity and simultaneity bias. The findings of this study show that the trends of selected crop acreage, production and yield from l980 to 20l9 fluctuated more during the Agricultural Transformation Agenda era (ATA). Aside from the cassava crop, yield growth rates were abysmal for the remaining five crops, with a negative rice rate indicative of poor productivity during the ATA period. In addition, production was steady with high growth rates, similar to the land devoted to production (acreage) during the ATA period. Additionally, an increase in the price of cassava causes a decrease in maize production in the short and long run. There is an inverse relationship between own price and rice production in the short and long run. The non-price variables affecting maize production were acreage, exchange rate, fertilizer consumption, and school enrollment. Likewise, the level of rainfall, crop production index, exchange rate, and school enrolment influence rice production. In conclusion, production was steady with high growth rates, similar to land devoted for production (acreage) under the ATA period. We suggest that the Nigerian government and farmers should invest in technologies that shift their reliance to rain-fed agriculture.