Climate-Change Impacts on Distribution of Amazonian Woody Plant Species Key to Conservation, Restoration and Sustainable Use in the Colombian Amazon

Climate change poses growing threats to Amazonian biodiversity, yet species-specific responses remain poorly understood, particularly in the Colombian Amazon. This study assessed the potential distribution and habitat suitability of eight woody plant species—Euterpe precatoria (Mart.) A.J.Hend., Mauritia flexuosa L.f., Oenocarpus bataua Mart., Minquartia guianensis Aubl., Cedrela odorata L., Virola elongata (Benth.) Warb., Theobroma grandiflorum (Willd. ex Spreng.) Schum. and Thebroma cacao L.—under a baseline period (1970–2000) and future climate projections for mid- (2041–2060) and late-century (2061–2080) periods, using two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Species distribution models (SDMs) integrated bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic predictors and were spatially intersected with Special Management Areas. Results revealed contrasting responses among species. M. flexuosa, E. precatoria, O. bataua, V. elongata, M. guianensis and T. cacao retained over 95% of their baseline suitable habitat and even expanded into new regions, reflecting broad climatic resilience under both future scenarios. In contrast, C. odorata experienced moderate contractions, losing 8.7% of their current ranges under SSP585 by 2080. The most vulnerable species was T. grandiflorum, projected to lose up to 27% of its current suitable habitat under the most pessimistic scenario. Overall, losses were mainly concentrated in the natural fractions of Indigenous Reserves and National Natural Parks. These findings underscore the heterogeneous responses of Amazonian species to climate change and highlight the need for adaptive conservation and management strategies. Protecting climate refugia, promoting ecological connectivity, and incorporating climate-resilient species into restoration programs will be critical to maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and local livelihoods in the Colombian Amazon under future climates.