Geopolitical Conflict and Resource Trade Flows: A Study on the Impact of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict on China’s Timber Imports from Russia

Russia is an important supplier of timber to China, and the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict has had a significant impact on China’s timber imports. Based on the provincial-level timber import trade data in China from January 2020 to December 2024, three-dimensional panel data of time–province–export country were constructed, and the difference-in-differences model was used to analyze the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on China’s timber imports from Russia. The results show that (1) the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict significantly reduced the volume of timber imports from Russia across Chinese provinces; (2) the Russia–Ukraine conflict adversely affected China’s timber imports from Russia by increasing price volatility and constraining Russia’s timber supply capacity; (3) based on the heterogeneity test results, the negative impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on timber imports from Russia was more pronounced in regions with a high degree of industrialization and greater dependence on imported timber; (4) the Russia–Ukraine conflict raised China’s timber import prices and intensified price volatility. Therefore, it is essential to enhance the overall risk management capacity of the timber industry supply chain by building a diversified timber supply system, strengthening the strategic reserves of timber resources, and improving price risk management instruments, in order to effectively respond to the impact of geopolitical conflicts.