Community Context and Risk Assessment: Race, Structural Disadvantage, and Juvenile Recidivism

Risk assessment instruments are widely used in U.S. juvenile justice systems to predict recidivism. However, concerns persist that these tools may embed systemic inequities by relying on indicators shaped by racialized disadvantage and community-level deprivation. This study examines whether race/ethnicity, detention and placement histories, and neighborhood disadvantage predict juvenile recidivism, and whether these effects vary across contexts. Using public data from the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice and a longitudinal cohort of 2877 youth (11,508 assessments, 2015–2018), generalized estimating equations modeled rearrest within 365 days. Detention history significantly predicted rearrest; placement history showed limited effects. Neighborhood disadvantage did not predict rearrest directly but significantly amplified the effect of prior detention. Race and SDI interactions revealed divergent patterns across groups. These findings underscore the need to contextualize risk assessments within structural inequities and to reform predictive tools to support equity-centered, rehabilitative decision-making.