Predicting educational exclusion: A literature review of risk factors associated with early leaving from education

Extended periods of exclusion from education and the labour market can have a range of ‘scarring’ effects in later life. Consequently, there is international interest in early identification of young people most at risk of exclusion. Using a PRISMA format, this paper reviews an extensive literature on risk factors associated with three conceptualisations of exclusion: ‘not in education, employment or training’ (NEET); early school leaving (ESL) and high school dropout. It covers sources meeting three conditions: they present original findings on the factors associated with individual young persons becoming educationally excluded; provide evidence that the association is likely to be causal; and are based on data collected in English speaking countries or in European liberal democracies. The paper finds robust evidence for a range of risk factors at different levels. Micro (individual and family) and meso (school level) risk factors must be seen in the macroscopic context affecting young people, including economic circumstances, but also the nature of social institutions relating to the labour market, education and welfare. However, early-warning indicators based on selected risk factors must always be viewed with caution, since predictions of educational exclusion are probabilistic rather than categorical.