Classification and evaluation of dangerous glacial lakes in the Hindukush region of Afghanistan (HKA) using a multi-criteria approach

The formation and rapid expansion of glacial lakes following from climate change and rapid glacier recession in the Hindukush-Himalayan (HKH) region may increase the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This paper develops a methodology for assessing the susceptibility of lakes (those ≥ 0.01 km² in size) to GLOF hazards. First, lakes were classified into six main types based on morphological features. Second, a multi-criteria approach (MCA) was applied, analyzing 13 factors across three GLOF-criteria: lake hydro-glacial characteristics, dam conditions and surrounding-triggers. The factors were ranked and weighted using an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Pairwise Comparison Matrix (PCM) to drive a Susceptibility to Hazard Index (SHI). Lakes were categorized as high, medium or low susceptibility based on SHI values. The SHI-evaluations used past GLOF events from Afghanistan and the High Mountain Asia (HMA) dataset. Of 162 lakes assessed in Afghanistan, 36 showed high GLOF susceptibility, and 54 with medium susceptibility. Smaller lakes (0.01−0.04 km²) dominated high and medium hazard classes, while larger lakes (0.1−0.5 km²) were few in these classes. This indicates smaller lakes may drive future GLOF risks in Afghanistan, where regular monitoring and fieldwork is important. These findings support hazard mapping and disaster risk reduction-measures for downstream-communities.