Natural resource dependence and the erosion of energy system resilience

Amid shifting geopolitical dynamics and accelerated energy transition, enhancing energy system resilience (ESR) has become a key strategy for achieving energy security during transition and turbulent times. Previous studies have primarily explored ESR from engineering and technological perspectives, overlooking the impact of natural resource dependence (NRD) on ESR. Using provincial data from China spanning 2004 to 2020, this study measures NRD and ESR by the mining employment proportion and the entropy weight TOPSIS method, respectively, and then empirically analyzes their relationship by utilizing two-way fixed effect OLS model. The results are as follows: (i) Consistent with the central argument of the “resource curse” hypothesis, NRD can directly weaken ESR; for every 1% increase in NRD, ESR decreases by an average of 0.4982%. (ii) NRD can indirectly weaken ESR by intensifying climate change and relaxing environmental regulation. (iii) The weakening effect is particularly pronounced in non-municipal regions and areas characterized by high innovation levels and advanced digital development. Drawing on these research findings, this paper proposes policy recommendations for different types of regions. These include management and environmental regulation of fossil energy extraction and energy transition subsidy optimization, to promote regional sustainable development.