What if the butterfly effect was real? Assessing the contribution of greening plans to urban biodiversity in Italy

This paper assesses the contribution of Urban Greening Plans (UGPs) to achieving objectives of biodiversity conservation, restoration, and enhancement. Through a systematic content analysis of UGPs adopted by provincial capital cities in Italy, the study investigates which biodiversity-related attributes are relevant in greening plans and what level of commitment local governments demonstrate in planning, implementing, and monitoring biodiversity actions. The research highlights that, despite being sectoral, voluntary, and soft-policy instruments, quality UGPs have the potential to metaphorically generate a “butterfly effect,” sparking small-scale transformations that lead to broader, transformative changes, influencing socio-ecological structures and institutional dynamics. However, the analysis reveals significant challenges, including a lack of baseline data and standardized protocols for measuring urban biodiversity, which undermines the translation of the objectives into concrete actions. Additionally, a weak commitment to implementation, reflected in the limited use of monitoring indicators and biodiversity-related targets, is underlined. The study identifies examples of high-quality greening plans that benefit from strong political support and institutional commitment, as evidenced by the allocation of financial and human resources, and the use of shared governance tools that foster collaboration among diverse stakeholders and enhance the likelihood of successful implementation.