Spatial and Temporal Evolution Patterns and Influencing Factors of Logistics Expansion in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi Region

The collaborative development of the logistics industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi region is an important force in promoting regional integration. Based on data from 24 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi region on logistics and warehousing land use from 2012 to 2021, the degree of urban logistics expansion was measured using the land use expansion index model. This study, employing methods such as the coefficient of variation, hot and cold spot analysis and weighted standard deviation ellipses, explores the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and regional differences of urban logistics expansion. Additionally, the study utilises geographic detectors to identify the key influencing factors of urban logistics expansion in the four regions. Findings indicate that most cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi region experienced moderate to low-speed logistics expansion or no expansion at all, with a “high-low-high” evolutionary trend. Urban logistics expansion displays distinctive spatial differentiation, characterised by a “hot in Beijing-Tianjin, cold in Hebei-Shanxi” distribution. Cities not adjacent to Beijing exhibit higher levels of logistics expansion than those adjacent. Further research reveals that government policies and land use have the greatest impact on urban logistics expansion in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi region, particularly in Shanxi Province. It is essential to leverage government functions to provide policy guidance and support in rational urban road planning and economic development. This will not only improve the theory of logistics location and provide a theoretical basis for the coordinated development of regional logistics and economy but also provide a powerful reference for logistics planning, policy making and integrated regional economic development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi region and even nationwide.