Study on urban passenger transport carbon reduction pathways based on system dynamics

Passenger transport carbon emission control is recognized as a critical component in achieving the dual-carbon goals amid accelerating urbanization. A system dynamics model incorporating population and economic factors, energy consumption, traffic operation, and carbon emission control has been developed. Through boundary identification and validation of variable relationships, a simulation model has been established. Scenario simulations revealed that, among single-policy interventions, public transit optimization and energy technology upgrades demonstrated greater effectiveness than travel demand management. Dual-policy combinations significantly improved emission reduction efficiency, with effectiveness ranked as follows: public transport and energy technology policies (11.32%), public transport and travel demand policies (10.58%), and energy technology and travel demand policies (8.94%). The findings suggest that single measures are insufficient to meet emission reduction targets. Instead, a multidimensional policy synergy-integrating technological upgrades, structural optimization, and behavioral guidance-is essential in providing a systematic carbon reduction pathway for urban transport development.