Rice production potential and potential benefits from rice area expansion in Kenya: a literature review

Rice contributes significantly to food security, employment, and increased income among many households. The demand and consumption of rice in Kenya have greatly widened due to rapid population growth and a shift away from maize due to climate change impacts. Unfortunately, the increase in consumption is not commensurate with the increase in crop productivity and land area. As a result, Kenya is compelled to import 90% of milled rice to cater for domestic demand. A systematic review was conducted following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. The review aimed to establish the suitability of different areas for rice production, the possibilities of import substitution, increased production, and the impact of rice production on employment and the milling industry. Literature was accessed from various databases with only 26 studies selected for inclusion in the study. The study revealed that over 40% of the areas in Kenya are moderately suitable for rice production. Moderate areas yield 5.7% less than highly suitable areas. A simple simulation based on assumptions on yield and other parameters shows that allocating 10% of moderately suitable land to rice production has the potential of yielding 1,815,000 MT of rice annually. Rice imports can be fully substituted in the initial periods and more than a million jobs can be created. The Kenyan government should develop policies that would enhance the utilization of arable land to increase rice production.