Early childhood development among voluntary and forced migrants: evidence from Germany

Abstract Background While the number of descendants of voluntary and forced migrants rises, disparities in early childhood development (ECD) between these groups remain underexplored. Methods Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (2004-2021; N = 1826), which includes a representative sample of refugees in Germany, we compared developmental outcomes across five domains (communication, daily skills, social relations, gross motor skills, and fine motor skills) for children aged 2-4 who were born to voluntary and forced migrants. We employed multivariate linear regressions, adjusting for child demographics, parental education, and child health. Additional models incorporated maternal and paternal mental health. Results Children of forced migrants scored significantly lower across all developmental domains, with the largest gaps observed in gross motor skills (β = -0.319; 95% CI: -0.437 to -0.201) and social relations (β = -0.213; 95% CI: -0.329 to -0.098). Both maternal and paternal mental health were significantly associated with improved communication and daily skills. For maternal mental health, the associations were β = 0.070 (95% CI: 0.013 to 0.127) for communication skills and β = 0.100 (95% CI: 0.049 to 0.151) for daily skills. Paternal mental health was associated with β = 0.080 (95% CI: 0.024 to 0.145) for communication skills and β = 0.100 (95% CI: 0.052 to 0.160) for daily skills. Adjusting for parental mental health attenuated, but did not eliminate the developmental differences between groups. Conclusions Children of refugees show persistent developmental disadvantages in early childhood, particularly in gross motor skills and social functioning, even after accounting for parental mental health and sociodemographic factors. These findings highlight the need for public health policies that address early developmental risks in refugee families. Targeted family-based mental health support may help to reduce these disparities. Key messages • Children of forced migrants show early developmental delays compared to voluntary migrants. • Parental mental health partially explains disparities, but structural barriers remain.