Economic drivers of ultra-processed production in Brazil: evidence from industrial revenue trends

Abstract Background The rise in ultra-processed food consumption has raised public health concerns, yet the economic incentives behind their production remain underexplored. This study investigates the economic attractiveness of ultra-processed food production in Brazil through an analysis of real industrial revenue trends. Methods A quantitative longitudinal analysis was conducted using data from the Brazilian Annual Industrial Survey (PIA-Empresa/IBGE) from 2016 to 2022, encompassing industrial companies with 30 or more employees. The study focused on manufacturing classes predominantly composed of ultra-processed products, based on the taxonomy proposed by Canella et al. and aligned with the NOVA classification developed by Monteiro et al.: cocoa-based products, chocolates and confectionery; cookies and crackers; and ready-to-eat meals. Net revenue figures were deflated using the Producer Price Index (IPP/IBGE) for food manufacturing to assess real growth. Sector-specific trends were then compared to the broader food manufacturing industry to evaluate the relative economic performance of ultra-processed food segments. Results The analysis revealed heterogeneous performance across ultra-processed food segments. Between 2016 and 2022, real net revenue increased by 8.23% for ready-to-eat meals and 2.29% for cocoa-based products, chocolates, and confectionery, while cookies and crackers declined by 8.85%. In comparison, the overall food manufacturing sector experienced a 7.96% real increase in net revenue during the same period. Conclusions Real growth in key UPF sectors like ready-to-eat meals suggests their production is economically attractive, incentivizing expansion. However, divergent performance across categories highlights complex dynamics. These findings reinforce economic incentives as commercial determinants of health (Gilmore et al.), warranting policy attention. Key messages • Some ultra-processed food segments appear economically attractive to industrial firms in Brazil, offering financial incentives for continued expansion. • Economic indicators should be integrated into public health debates and regulatory strategies, given the growing economic relevance of ultra-processed food production.