Cervical Cancer Trends and Prediction in Asian Countries: Global Burden of Disease Data, 1990-2021

Abstract Background Cervical cancer remains a significant threat to women's health, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to analyze the burden, and forecast the trends of cervical cancer in selected south and southeast Asian countries using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Methods We extracted data from the GBD database from 1990 to 2021, including age-standardized incidence (ASIR), mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for cervical cancer. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), linear regression, joinpoint regression, and ARIMA models were used to assess temporal trends and forecast the trends in selected nine countries using R statistical software. Results The ASIR per 100,000 of cervical cancer in selected South and Southeast Asian countries decreased from 180.0 (95% CI: 139.0-226.0) in 1990 to 131.0 (95% CI: 96.6-170.0) in 2021. The total incidence rate showed a downward trend of -27.3%, with an average annual decrease rate of -0.88%. Overall, a declining trend was observed in the ASIR (EAPC = -1.21), mortality (EAPC = -1.90), and DALY (EAPC = -2.05) rates from 1990 to 2021. Despite the general downward trend, since 2010, an increasing trend in ASIR has been observed in India, Malaysia, and Nepal, while DALY has shown an upward trend specifically in Malaysia. Mortality shows downwards trend expect Malaysia. Forecasts for 2040 suggest that Malaysia will experience an increased incidence compared to the overall projected incidence. Conclusions Although cervical cancer indicators (ASIR, mortality, and DALYs) have generally decreased from 1990 to 2021, trends vary considerably among South and Southeast Asian countries, with some showing stagnation or increases since 2010. To achieve WHO's 2030 elimination goals and address this persistent public health challenge, country-specific strategies and comprehensive prevention and management programs must be developed and implemented across South and Southeast Asia. Key messages • The ASIR per 100,000 of cervical cancer in selected South and Southeast Asian countries decreased from 180.0 (95% CI: 139.0-226.0) in 1990 to 131.0 (95% CI: 96.6-170.0) in 2021. • Despite the general downward trend, since 2010, an increasing trend in ASIR has been observed in India, Malaysia, and Nepal, while DALY has shown an upward trend specifically in Malaysia.