Energy trilemma importance assessment in the carbon neutrality transition of power systems

With the increasing complexity of power system development, balancing the trilemma of economic viability, security, and environmental sustainability has become imperative. In this paper, a quantitative assessment method for evaluating the importance of economic, security, and sustainability objectives is proposed, considering the dynamics between the ideal and baseline pathways of power systems. First, an ideal pathway clustering method based on agglomerative hierarchical clustering is introduced. Then, a baseline pathway optimization model is built based on a two-stage planning-operation framework. Additionally, a multi-objective importance assessment method for energy trilemma utilizing the Kantorovich distance is developed. Finally, a case study on energy transition pathways in China demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method in effectively assessing the evolution patterns of the energy trilemma, thereby providing a structured approach for navigating the complexities of energy transition in pursuit of carbon neutrality goals.