Quantifying the environmental impact of electric vehicle adoption: an analysis of California's alternative energy vehicle market

This paper examines the environmental impact of the growing popularity of Electric Vehicles (EVs) by quantifying both the Rebound Effect and Substitution Effect in California. Given that California currently has the highest adoption rate of EVs in the United States, it serves as a key indicator for assessing the wider environmental benefits of EVs across the country. We categorize motivations for purchasing EVs into two types: those driven by the Substitution Effect and those attributable to the Rebound Effect. Our analysis suggests that the minimum threshold for replacing Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) with EVs to achieve real energy savings—according to Jevons' Paradox—is approximately 34%. Furthermore, our review of data from the Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC) indicates a downward trend in both electricity and gasoline consumption over the past few years, suggesting that Jevons’ Paradox does not apply. Overall, this study not only highlights the environmental implications of EVs but also underscores the importance of considering both the Rebound and Substitution Effects in policies aimed at realizing actual energy savings.