The combined impact of fisheries and climate change on future carbon sequestration by oceanic macrofauna
Although the role of marine macrofauna in the ocean carbon cycle is increasingly understood, the cumulative impacts of fisheries and climate change on this pathway remain overlooked. Here, using a marine ecosystem model, we estimate that each degree of warming reduces macrofauna biomass and carbon export by 4.2% and 2.46%, respectively. Under a high emission scenario (SSP 5-8.5), this translates to a 13.5% ± 6.6% decline in export by 2100, relative to the 1990s. Fishing further amplifies this reduction by up to 56.7% ± 16.3%, creating a sequestration deficit of 14.6 ± 10.3 GtC by 2100. On average, a 1% biomass loss from fishing results in a 0.8% decline in carbon export. However, sequestration durability (~600 years) remains unaffected. While measures restoring commercial macrofaunal biomass could yield carbon benefits comparable to mangrove restoration, multiple uncertainties limit their inclusion in the Nature-based Climate Solution portfolio, highlighting the need for further research.
Authors
- Nicolas Barrier (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1693-4719)
- Daniele Bianchi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6621-0858)
- David Mouillot (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0402-2605)
- Jérôme Guiet (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2146-5160)
- Marc Troussellier (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3890-063X)
- Tim DeVries (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7771-9430)
- Gaël Mariani (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3816-5583)
Institutions
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- World Maritime University (SE)
- Ifremer (FR)
- University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- Université de Montpellier (FR)
- Marine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (FR)
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2025-10-27
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64576-8
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.36
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- European Commission
- Nuclear Safety and Security Commission
- Université de Montpellier
- Research Executive Agency