Past and future trends of loneliness among the general population until 2040 in Finland

Abstract Background Subjective experience of loneliness is recognized as an increasing public health and economical issue. We examined the past and future trends of loneliness among men and women in Finland from 2013 to 2040. Methods We analyzed seven representative cross-sectional surveys from the years 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024 (N = 199,230, aged 20 years or older). Multiple imputation was used in projecting loneliness (experienced fairly often or all the time) for men and women by age-groups until 2040. Results The prevalence of feeling lonely began to increase in 2018, following a steady trend for men and slightly declining trend for women between 2013 and 2018. A steep increase between 2020 and 2024 was seen for men, but for women, the increasing trend was seen between 2018 and 2020 and then it plateaued, ending up around 14 % for men and 13 % for women in 2024. The prevalence of loneliness among 20-64-year-olds increased between 2018 and 2024, but the increase was more pronounced in men than in women. Among women aged 75 years and older, loneliness increased until 2020 and then declined. Among same aged (75+ y) men, the trend remained relatively stable between 2013 and 2024. Projections based on observed trends during 2013-2024 suggested an increase in loneliness for both men and women, ending up around 32 % for men 25 % women in 2040. Loneliness is expected to continue increasing in all other age groups except for those aged 75 years and older. Conclusions If the observed increasing trend cannot be reversed, loneliness will become more prevalent among 20-74-year-old men and women, posing significant concerns for well-being and health across the lifespan. To address this, national loneliness reduction programs recommended by the WHO Commission on Social Connection are needed.